Arizona State vs. TCU: Week 5 Preview

The Sun Devils return home under the Friday night lights in Tempe for their Big 12 opener, squaring off with the TCU Horned Frogs on September 26, 2025. After a tough road game against Baylor, this marks a crucial pivot point in ASU’s season. Both programs are fighting to carve out their spot in the new-look Big 12, while the Sun Devils are ensuring last year wasn't a "fake season". A chance to go 5-0 on the line and garner a top 5 spot nationally would really set the team ahead of the pack as a win pushes the Sun Devils to 2-0 in the top-loaded B12 conference.

Matchup Breakdown

TCU enters this matchup with plenty of question marks. Since their Cinderella 2022 College Football Playoff run, the Horned Frogs have battled inconsistency on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they continue to run a high-tempo spread system that leans on explosive chunk plays, often looking for mismatches against linebackers and safeties. Sustaining long drives has been their Achilles’ heel. If Arizona State forces TCU to dink-and-dunk down the field, it greatly reduces the Frogs’ chances of dictating the pace.

Defensively, the Sun Devils must contain two key elements: the spread run game and the deep ball. TCU’s offensive line is solid but not elite, leaving an opportunity for ASU’s front four to generate pressure without overcommitting blitz packages. Shutting down the run on early downs will be critical, as it forces TCU into obvious passing situations where mistakes tend to pile up.

Chamon Metayer #7 rumbles down the field vs Kansas last season

On the other side, Arizona State’s offense faces one of the trickiest alignments in college football — the 3-3-5 defense. TCU thrives on disguising coverages and creating confusion for quarterbacks. It’s a scheme built to stifle one-dimensional passing attacks, but it can be gashed by teams who establish a consistent ground game. For ASU, the offensive line has to be sharp. If they can create daylight for the backs and stay ahead of schedule, it sets up play-action opportunities to take shots downfield.

Ultimately, red-zone execution could decide this game. TCU’s defense has often been “bend but don’t break,” while Arizona State has shown flashes of inconsistency when finishing drives. A few key red-zone conversions could be the difference between a nail-biter and a statement win for the Sun Devils.

Arizona State's Bold Call

CJ Fite #99 after a tough loss during ASU's 3-9 season

Arizona State forces three turnovers on defense — including a defensive score — to flip momentum and energize the home crowd. In a matchup where both teams are desperate to make a statement, ASU’s opportunistic defense seizes the moment under the lights.

Breakout Star

Jaren Hamilton, WR (ASU)

Jaren Hamilton #16 makes a tough catch vs Mercer at home last season!

The transfer from Alabama has been steadily carving out a role in Arizona State’s offense, but this game has all the makings of his breakout performance. Hamilton’s speed makes him a dangerous deep threat, and against TCU’s 3-3-5 scheme, the opportunities are there. The Horned Frogs often leave their corners in one-on-one coverage while safeties bite down in run support — exactly the kind of setup Hamilton can exploit.

Through the first four weeks, Hamilton has flashed potential, but against the Horned Frogs, he’s poised to shine. Expect him to be targeted on go routes and posts to stretch the field, while also serving as a reliable chain-mover on third downs thanks to his precise route running.

Prediction: Hamilton eclipses 100 receiving yards, hauls in a touchdown, and sets the tone for what could be his rise as one of the premier playmakers in the Big 12.

Closing Thoughts

The Big 12 home opener in Tempe isn’t just another game — it’s a statement opportunity. A win against TCU would not only push the Sun Devils closer to bowl eligibility but also announce that they can defend home turf against one of the league’s most seasoned programs. Expect a tight contest with key defensive plays and smart offensive execution deciding the outcome.

Predicted Score: Arizona State 31 – TCU 27

With turnovers on defense, timely offensive execution, and a raucous Friday-night crowd behind them, Arizona State has the chance to start conference play 2–0.