GCU has gone dancing in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Has their reign of terror come to an end in their last year at the Western Athletic Conference? After dropping 2 games in the tail end of the schedule vs Cal Baptist and Abilene Christian, the Wolverines of Utah Valley took not only the regular season crown from the heavily favored Lopes but also the coveted #1 seed in the tournament.
While the reigning regular season and tournament champion comes into the tournament in the #2 seed, they are still the heavy favorite to win the tournament (+130 vs UVU @ +245 via DK). Why is that you ask? Well its easy really, with no Utah Valley, or ACU, or Seattle on their side of the bracket, their only real challenge is going to come in the semi final vs the winner of either Cal Baptist or Tarleton St. Some might say, well Jordon, the Lopes lost to CBU already this season? Why is that an "easier side"? It took GCU's worst statistical shooting night of the season, and on the road, for the Lopes to lose to CBU. Due to their natural affinity to win games over the last several seasons, GCU has become everyone's Super Bowl.
What to expect in round 1 for the favorites?
Coming into this tournament, I think it is important to take a second to look at the bracket. both #1 UVU and #2 GCU each play their first game on Wednesday before having a hopeful hiatus until Friday due to how the bracket is set up. GCU will play Texas-Arlington and UVU will play the winner of Southern Utah and Utah Tech in their first game.
Given that they are the #1 seed, you would think that their first game would be a cake walk, EXCEPT for the fact that UVU almost lost to both of their potential opponents less than a month ago. They were tied or down against both teams in the final minute of those games respectively before hitting the game-winning shot. While I am not saying that UVU is going to lose to either opponent, I just think it is going to be a much more physical game than you might think.
GCU gets Texas-Arlington on Wednesday, which if you can remember, was the WAC championship game last season before a game of dodgeball broke out after Collin Moore dunked on the Mavericks up huge late in the game. In the 2 games this season, the refs have been very tight-lipped due to the bad blood boiling up between the 2 teams. This game is going to be called very tight to the chest, and I expect a good game early before a blowout late in favor of GCU.
Round 2 will be not so pretty!
In round 2, we will see, in my professional opinion, a bout between UVU/Seattle and GCU/Tarleton State for a shot at a trophy and a spot in March Madness. The first game will be between UVU/Seattle which will be a lot closer than the UVU fans want to hope for but Dominck Nelson is going to take over late for the Wolverines and will them to victory. Koby Williamson, who I am half confident has been playing at Seattle for atleast 22 seasons, will have a great game as well Montcrief but it wont be enough to push the Redhawks over the hump and into the finals.
GCU will have the late game on that evening against Tarleton State, the Texans. GCU has had an affinity over the last 2 seasons to play down to, not only bad teams, but teams that arent even in the same league as them. Tarleton is one of those teams this season. Hampered by injuries early in the season, the Texans really never got up off the ground in conference play and ended up with the #6 seed. Luckily, they got matched up against an injured Cal Baptist team which propelled them to a victory in the quarter finals. This game is going to be a blood bath, I would not be surprised if GCU wins this game by 15+.
Wac Championship BABY!
As everyone knows, Las Vegas has become the mecca of college basketball in March. There are 5 conferences that host their tournaments here, people flocked to vegas for the NIL tournament this season, and in Las Vegas, I am fairly certain that Rounds 1+2 of March Madness are a holiday.
GCU has not lost in Vegas since 2020 in the Covid season and I dont think that changes tonight. Like mentioned above, GCU has the talent to compete with the best teams in the nation and other times they look like a 16 seed playin team. Until this team shows me that a team in purple from Phoenix can lose in Vegas, you have to back the Lopes in this championship game.
Utah Valley played GCU tough in both games this season, splitting the season series with each team taking their home game. I would be remissed to think that this is going to be a blowout game. At this point in time, GCU will be on their 3rd game in 3 days vs a very physical UTA team and a physical Tarleton team. Those Texas boys just play different.
Early on in the game, Utah Valley star and WAC POY Dom Nelson is going to give the Lopes fits as he did in the previous 2 games, but when it comes down to business, GCU just has more talent, more firepower, and more experience than the Wolverines. GCU will win this game, but GCU fans might be closing their eyes at the end as I think that GCU is going to win this game by 3 points or less.
All-Tournament Team & Tournament MVP
The all-tournament team is going to be comprised of a flurry of GCU/UVU players with the likes of Koby Williamson or Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe on that roster as well. In my opinion, the team is going to be comprised of the following
Dominick Nelson
Ray Harrison
Tyon Grant Foster
Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe
Duke Brennan/Osiris Grady
The Tournament MVP, is not going to be who you all think it is. While it is still going to go to a player on the winning team, it is not going to be Tyon Grant Foster or Ray Harrison. I think that in his second season in #WACVEGAS, Duke Brennan is going to go off in Vegas and average 15/10 in all 3 of GCU's games en route to another piece of hardware for his trophy case before finding out where the Lopes will compete for a shot at another March Madness win!
I will be providing coverage of the entire WAC Basketball tournament starting tomorrow with the #8/#9 seeded game in St. George. Follow @Dunk_Dynasty_ for all my WAC Hoops content!
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