Previewing the Oklahoma City Thunder for the 2026-27 Season
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off what they would consider a disappointing season after losing in seven games to the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder are basically tied with San Antonio in terms of NBA Finals odds, and after those two teams there is a pretty significant gap in terms of who people expect to win the championship.
Oklahoma City is bringing back nearly the same core. They let go of a few role players and replaced them with younger players and rookies, which makes sense considering how much draft capital this organization still has.
The Roster
Point Guards: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Nikola Topić, Bennett Stirtz
Shooting Guards: Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Otega Oweh (Two-Way Contract), Josh Dix (Two-Way Contract)
Small Forwards: Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Brooks Barnhizer (Two-Way Contract)
Power Forwards: Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams
Centers: Isaiah Hartenstein, Aday Mara, Thomas Sorber
Like I stated, the only real changes to this roster are the addition of some rookies and the departure of a few role players. They lost Lu Dort and Isaiah Joe, two guys who had been with the organization for a few years. That should open up more playing time for some of the younger players.
Aday Mara might need to step into an important role in year one because of the limited center depth. His size could also make him an important matchup piece against Victor Wembanyama.
Biggest Questions
I think one of the biggest questions surrounding the Oklahoma City Thunder this year is whether Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren can bounce back.
Chet Holmgren had a really good season until the Western Conference Finals, when things completely fell apart for him. He averaged only 10.7 points per game in that series against the Spurs compared to his regular-season average of 17.1.
Jalen Williams also dealt with injuries throughout the season, and his production dropped off compared to previous years. If those two cannot bounce back and continue to struggle throughout the year, and it starts to hurt the team's success, there is a real chance one or both could be moved next offseason.
The pressure is high for both of them, probably the most pressure either has faced so far in their young careers.
Another question surrounding this team is whether some of the rookies and younger players can step into the rotation. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe are all on different teams now, and those were three players who consistently received rotational minutes.
That leaves three open spots that will need to be filled by younger players such as Nikola Topić, Bennett Stirtz, Jared McCain, Aday Mara, and Thomas Sorber. The Thunder definitely have options and plenty of players who will be willing to step into larger roles. It will be interesting to see how it plays out and who can step up and start making a name for themselves.
The last major question I have for this team is whether the regular-season consistency can continue. That does not just mean whether the wins can continue, but also whether the individual success of their players can continue.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has won back-to-back MVP awards. Can he actually win a third? If he does, he would join the rare group of players to win three straight MVPs: Larry Bird, Wilt Chamberlain, and Bill Russell.
That is a category nobody has been able to crack in more than 40 years. Doing that at 28 years old would already put Gilgeous-Alexander into some serious all-time discussions.
Another question is whether the Thunder can secure the No. 1 seed for a fourth consecutive season. Only two teams in NBA history have been able to accomplish that.
People may not always call Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the face of the league, but even after losing in the Western Conference Finals last season, that does not change the fact that he is still the reigning MVP and has the Thunder in position to make some serious history. I do not think that is getting enough attention heading into the season.
Prediction Markets
Win Total: 62.5
To Win the NBA Finals: +270 (Tied for Best Odds)
To Win the Western Conference: +145 (Best Odds)
To Reach the Conference Finals: -220 (Best Odds)
To Reach the Conference Semifinals: -800 (Best Odds)
To Win the Division: -650 (Best Odds)
To Make the Playoffs: -20000
To Miss the Playoffs: +10000
To Participate in the Play-In Tournament: +4000
To Win the NBA Cup: +290 (Best Odds)
Final Prediction and Outlook
The Thunder are a very good team heading into this season and will almost certainly have another strong regular season. I just do not think they will make history by securing another No. 1 seed, and I also do not see Shai Gilgeous-Alexander winning a third straight MVP.
The Thunder are a very good organization, and SGA is obviously one of the best players in the league, but I do not think they will accomplish something that nobody has been able to do in more than 40 years.
I think the regular season may fall slightly below their recent standards because of some new faces entering the rotation. I also think that could affect them in the playoffs. My prediction is that this team gets upset in the postseason and could be in line for some bigger changes next offseason.
Final Prediction: 55-27, No. 2 seed, Second-Round Exit
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