Previewing the Houston Rockets for the 2026-27 Season
The Houston Rockets wrapped up the 2025-26 season in underwhelming fashion. Losing to the injured Los Angeles Lakers in six games after going down 3-0 was just unacceptable. There was no reason they should have lost a series to a Lakers team with a 41-year-old LeBron James as the No. 1 option.
Ime Udoka called out his team after going down 3-0 in the series, telling them to “grow up” and saying, “You’re not that young anymore.”
The Rockets just wrapped up their media day, as they were the first organization to hold it, and the team has very high expectations for themselves, as they should. Anything less than a second-round exit will be considered a massive failure, and if that does happen, major changes could happen next offseason.
The Roster
The Rockets roster is as follows:
Point Guards — Reed Sheppard, Fred VanVleet, Bruce Thornton, Sean Pedulla (Two-Way Contract)
Shooting Guards — Amen Thompson, Marcus Smart, Bogdan Bogdanović, Quadir Copeland (Two-Way Contract)
Small Forwards — Kevin Durant, Marcus Smart, Jae’Sean Tate, Julian Phillips
Power Forwards — Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, Oscar Tshiebwe, Rafael Castro (Two-Way Contract)
Centers — Alperen Şengün, Clint Capela, Steven Adams
The roster is really more or less the same from last season. The biggest difference is adding Marcus Smart from the Lakers, and he gets to play for his old coach Ime Udoka, who he played excellent under in Boston.
Bogdan Bogdanović will be able to add some much-needed shooting and be a veteran presence who they will absolutely need, especially come playoff time.
I think the biggest questions around this roster really revolve around the younger guys. Obviously, Amen Thompson and Şengün have proven themselves to be very good players, but others like Jabari Smith Jr. and Reed Sheppard really need to take another step forward, especially with Kevin Durant not getting any younger.
Fred VanVleet coming back is nice, but he will be turning 33 years old this season and is an undersized guard coming off a massive injury. He might be able to play a solid role off the bench this season, but that is really the best I can see from him.
Biggest Questions
The biggest questions surrounding this team probably won’t come until around April. Whether this team gets a top-three seed or even ends up in the Play-In as the 7 or 8 seed, I do not think it matters that much.
This is a team that simply needs to prove itself in the playoffs. I could see a sluggish regular season from them because of that.
Another major question mark is Kevin Durant. At media day, he stated that he does not want his minutes to be reduced because of his age and has no plans of retiring anytime soon.
With Kevin Durant, the question always is whether he is happy. It seems like, as of now, Kevin Durant is happy in Houston, but that most definitely can change before the trade deadline in February.
I am sure that no matter how the Rockets’ regular season is going up to that point, he will be discussed in mock trades online and across the league. If the Rockets are more sluggish in the regular season up to February, he most definitely could end up on the trade block, and many contenders would be willing to make a deal for him.
If that happens, I really wouldn’t see it affecting the Rockets’ season as much as some others might. I am sure they could get a couple of nice pieces in a trade for him that could contribute right away, and the workload on players such as Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., and Amen Thompson would just increase. It could also give them much more room to break out even more.
That is all a big if, though, and as of right now, I am sure Houston has no plans to trade Kevin Durant, so we’ll see how that plays out throughout the season.
The last major question mark I have around this squad is the point guard position. Like I stated, I think people in the media are overhyping the return of Fred VanVleet.
I hope I get proven wrong, but history shows that a 32-year-old undersized guard coming off a major injury will not always return to the level he was at before.
That leaves Reed Sheppard, who definitely took a step forward last year with a larger role due to VanVleet being sidelined. Sheppard will definitely need to continue to improve his game, but behind him on the depth chart, that leaves VanVleet and Marcus Smart splitting some point guard reps.
I think overall they will be fine at that position, but it will definitely be something to monitor throughout the season.
Prediction Markets
Some of the current future betting lines for this team are as follows:
Regular-season win total: 47.5
To win the NBA Finals: +5000 (14th-best odds)
To win the Western Conference: +2200 (6th-best odds)
To reach the Conference Finals: +650 (5th-best odds)
To reach the Conference Semifinals: +165 (5th-best odds)
To win the division: +750 (2nd-best odds)
To make the playoffs: -525
To miss the playoffs: +390
To participate in the Play-In: +175
To win the NBA Cup: +2800 (12th-best odds)
The betting lines around this team are definitely above average. Based on these lines, they are projecting the Rockets to finish around the 4-6 seed in the Western Conference.
That is definitely solid, but if that were to happen, it would be another year of getting slightly worse, which would not be a good look for the organization.
Final Outlook and Prediction
I think the Rockets will certainly be a playoff team come April, really no matter what circumstances happen. If Kevin Durant gets traded or they struggle with injuries, they should still have enough firepower to get into the postseason.
The ceiling for this team, I believe, is the 3 seed and around 53 wins, while the floor is the 8 or 9 seed, hovering around .500.
A couple of other takeaways and predictions I have are that Kevin Durant does get traded by the deadline. I also think Şengün takes another leap and has the best year of his career so far.
I have the Rockets finishing 47-35 as the 5 seed, just under their over/under win total. I am not confident in this team winning a playoff series, either. I see them as more likely to lose in the first round, but that also depends on the matchup.
Final Prediction
47-35 — 5 Seed — First-Round Exit
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