Clemson vs Miami: The Eye of the Hurricane

Clemson, S.C. – Don’t look now but Clemson is on a three-game win streak

The beginning of the seasonal test for Clemson has come as the Tigers return home for a tussle with Miami after their 24-10 win over the Cal Golden Bears last Friday in Berkeley.

Despite a stifling Clemson passing offense, the Tigers have been roaring on defense, special teams, and the running back room.

The spread for the game has opened with Miami being 17.5-point favorites and it might keep climbing closer to Saturday as the Hurricanes look to continue to capitalize on their 2026 campaign.

Darien Mensah has been absolutely lights out for the Canes going 94-for-106 for 1,211 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns. The Heisman hopeful will be looking to add to his resumé against a Tigers defense that is (somehow) ranked 91st in total defense. Despite the stats, the Clemson defense has lived up to the usual hype, allowing three total touchdowns since the LSU game, forcing five turnovers, producing eight sacks and fourteen tackles for loss.

Yes, this will be the biggest test for the Tigers’ defense but after the last three games, the secondary and defensive line are both locked in and ready for the fight.

In the small sample size that is the last few games, Tom Allen’s defensive unit has looked lights-out better than last year, possibly even going back to Brent Venables’ last unit.

What will be most interesting to see is how Clemson’s secondary reacts to deep balls thrown particularly to Malachi Toney. Ashton Hampton and Elliot Washington have already had a hell of a season, keeping receivers clear of the ball almost 70% of the time while in coverage. What I expect from Allen to do is to keep Hampton on Toney when playing man coverage, as opposing quarterbacks have only completed 36.8% of their passes while Hampton is lurking. Keeping Toney contained will be the biggest factor in Clemson’s defensive success as well as their run defense.

Clemson ranks 96th in run defense, allowing 631 yards on 142 attempts and five rushing touchdowns. All five rushing touchdowns the Tigers have allowed came in the redzone, something that Miami has been mediocre at (85.7% success rate).

If Clemson is looking to have a profound impact on the game, they need to continue to limit touches and passing attempts in the redzone, especially against a Miami offense that has struggled in that area.

Josh’s Defensive Player Watchlist

Elliot Washington III, #3 CB - 12 TOT, 1 FF, 3 INT, 3 PD

Jeremiah Alexander, #7 LB - 28 TOT, 0.5 sacks, 1 PD

London Merritt, #14 DE - 9 TOT, 1 sack, 2 PD

Will Heldt, #13 DE - 12 TOT, 4 sacks

Ashton Hampton, #2 CB - 10 TOT, 1 INT, 4 PD

The offense for Clemson, unlike the defense, has struggled heavily, ranking at 122nd in total offense with 1,256 total yards on 258 plays and seven offensive touchdowns, the lowest ranking of all Power 4 teams.

Clemson’s quarterback room has absolutely struggled this season, with Tait Reynolds leading the way for a third straight game. Reynolds has thrown for 521 yards (120th), one touchdown (136th), and two interceptions (57th) with a 29.0 QBR (134th). Reynolds has also been sacked ten times and passed for a career-long 45 yards.

The running room, as expected under new OC Chad Morris, has been pretty solid with Gideon Davidson leading the way. Gid has 59 carries for 346 yards and three rushing touchdowns, including a 75-yard house call last week against California.

The receiving corps for the Tigers has also struggled, with the highest-ranked receiver being T.J. Moore with 21 receptions for 196 yards and one receiving touchdown.

If the Tigers are going to even sniff a win against Miami, especially from the offensive side, they will need to rely heavily on Gideon Davidson and the running offense. Gid the Kid showed life on the field last week, rushing for 159 yards on 22 carries and two touchdowns. Chad Morris’ playbook for end-arounds, jet sweeps, and pitches have been relatively effective for the Tigers when executed primarily on the left-side of the offensive line. I expect perhaps some more trickery from the offense heading into the heart of the game but expect the game to be primarily on the ground, especially with the rain that is threatening Saturday night.

Josh’s Offensive Player Watchlist

Gideon Davidson, #8 RB - 59 CAR, 346 YDS, 3 TD

Tyler Brown, #6 WR - 11 REC, 112 YDS, 1 CAR, 34 YDS

T.J. Moore, #1 WR - 21 REC, 196 YDS, 1 TD

Christian Bentancur, #87 TE - 5 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD

Bryant Wesco Jr., #12 WR - 16 REC, 163 YDS, 1 PRTD

Chris Johnson Jr., #16 RB - 17 CAR, 69 YDS

Jarvis Green, #21 RB - 18 CAR, 74 YDS

3 Keys to the Game

I’m going to be honest with y’all, I think Clemson can absolutely hang with Miami but the Tigers need to do three things to earn a win.

First and foremost, the Tigers need to be lights out on defense. Put constant pressure on Toney, Mensah, and the run game and you have a high chance of winning on that side of scrimmage.

Second, Nolan Hauser needs to deliver on his Lou Groza campaign. If it comes down to a field goal to win the game, my full trust is in Hauser because he has one of the best legs in the game. However, if the conditions on the field are as bad as they say, the Tigers will likely rely heavily on the placekicker to help deliver them, just as he had against Georgia Southern and UNC.

Third, the offensive line needs to be in sync, especially when it comes to discipline on third downs and not giving up penalties. The Tigers rank 130th in third-down conversions, with a 27.3% success rate. Clemson has also given up an abysmal 229-penalty yards on 25 penalties. The offensive line, plainly put, needs to be as disciplined as possible if they want a shot against Miami.

Prediction: I think in a sloppy-weathered environment, on primetime television in Death Valley, Clemson covers the spread and wins on account for the running game and a career day from Nolan Hauser. The defense plays almost perfectly and the secondary stays on lock. Clemson wins in my opinion 23-20 with a game winning kick from Hauser. Expect a low-scoring affair due to poor weather conditions and possibly lightning delays. Gideon rushes for another 150+ yard day to help power the Tigers, behind a clutch late-game play by either Ashton Hampton or (surprise) London Merritt.