Week 5 was a losing week for us. We went 5-6 in best bets.
Week 6 features some pivotal games across the country including Oklahoma-Texas, Alabama-Texas A&M, Kentucky-Georgia and more.
For this edition of Brendan’s Best Bets, we are taking a look at the Week 6 slate. Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
FIU +7.5 (-140)
Wednesday night football is back. I am taking FIU +7.5 at New Mexico State to kickoff Week 6. Both FIU and New Mexico State are coming off of bye weeks. Four out of FIU’s five games have been decided by just one possession. I am banking on that trend continuing against an underwhelming New Mexico State team.
This line opened at New Mexico State -3. The Aggies have been bet all the way up to -6.5. To be safe, I am buying it up to FIU +7.5.
Nebraska +3.5 (-120)
Nebraska travels to Illinois in a Friday night Big Ten West clash. The Fighting Illini have struggled this season with close, one possession wins against Toledo and FAU and blowout losses against Kansas, Penn State and Purdue. The Huskers haven’t been that impressive either but they have a better defense and run game than Illinois.
This should be a close, low-scoring game. It will be a sloppy game, but I like Nebraska to win the game outright. Vegas is giving us 3.5 points though so I’ll take it.
Toledo -19.5 (-110)
Toledo travels to UMass on Saturday. The Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC and are 4-1 to start the year while UMass has lost five straight games after winning its season opener against New Mexico State. In that stretch of five straight losses, UMass has lost to some bad teams.
This game is a total mismatch. Toledo is one of the best teams in the nation in rushing offense. The Rockets average 236.3 rushing yards per game. The Minutemen allow 196.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 117th in FBS. This spread should be north of three touchdowns.
Texas A&M moneyline (+120)
Texas A&M hosts Alabama in a huge game in the SEC West. The winner of this game will put itself in the driver’s seat to win the SEC West. Alabama and Texas A&M probably have two of the best front sevens in the country and are really good at stopping the run. To beat both of these defenses, the offenses will have to utilize the passing game. The big question in this game is which offensive line can protect the quarterback better and give him time to stretch the field? The Alabama offensive line has allowed 20 sacks this season. Texas A&M’s offensive line has only allowed seven sacks with a less mobile quarterback. Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe will have to do a good job of extending plays if Alabama wants to win this game.
The wrong team is favored in this game. The Aggies have an intimidating home environment and the past two games in this series have been decided by one possession. The Aggies should be able to stop the Alabama run game and I don’t trust Milroe on the road enough and the offensive play calling to take Alabama here.
Syracuse/North Carolina Under 59.5 (-115)
Syracuse struggled to put up points at home against Clemson last week. Now they hit the road in North Carolina. The Orange are missing their top pass catcher in Oronde Gadsden so quarterback Garrett Shrader doesn’t have a ton of weapons. North Carolina’s defense is improved and will limit the Syracuse offense.
I expect the Tar Heels to score in the high 20s to low 30s range, but Syracuse I don’t think will help the point total that much. I expect this to be a 31-17 type game in favor of UNC. Take the under and there is a chance of rain in Chapel Hill.
UCF/Kansas Under 64.5 (-110)
Get on the line as soon as possible because it will drop. Kansas will start backup quarterback Jason Bean and Jalon Daniels is still dealing with a back injury. It is unclear if UCF’s starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee will play.
Despite both backup quarterbacks being good, I expect this to be a game in the high 20s. The point total is too high for two teams that could be going with their backup quarterbacks.
Tulsa +3 (-110)
Tulsa travels to Florida Atlantic on Saturday evening. The Owls lost their starting quarterback Casey Thompson for the season during the Clemson game. Daniel Richardson is the starter for FAU and the Owls will be coming into this game off of a bye week. Florida Atlantic’s offense has been underwhelming against FBS competition. The Owls posted 10 points against Ohio, 14 points against Clemson and 17 points against Illinois. Richardson is an experienced backup and Tulsa’s defense struggles to defend the pass, but are great against the run. Tulsa quarterback Cardell Williams could pose some problems for the FAU defense with his dual threat abilities. Tulsa should also be able to run the ball against the Owls.
The wrong team is favored here. Tulsa has the momentum after a weeknight primetime win last week. FAU needed that bye week and could start off slow. FAU does not have an intimidating home environment. I like the Golden Hurricane to win the game outright, but they are getting three points, so I will gladly take them on the road.
Tulsa/FAU Under 54.5 (-110)
Heading back to the Tulsa-FAU game, I expect this to be low-scoring. I already touched on FAU’s poor offensive output against FBS opponents and the Owls will be without their starting quarterback. Tulsa is prone to turnovers. The Golden Hurricane have turned the ball over 12 times this season.
I expect this to be a sloppy, low-scoring game. Both teams should hover in the low to mid 20s in points. Bet the under along with Tulsa +3.
To recap, here are the bets we are making:
FIU +7.5 (-140)
Nebraska +3.5 (-120)
Toledo -19.5 (-110)
Texas A&M moneyline (+120)
Syracuse vs North Carolina Under 59.5 (-115)
UCF vs Kansas Under 64.5 (-110)
Tulsa +3 (-110)
Tulsa vs FAU Under 54.5 (-110)