A new season of College Football is almost here. With a new season comes an opportunity to have a little extra change in your pocket.
In the coming weeks leading up to kickoff on August 26, I will go from conference to conference sharing my preseason win total bets that are worth putting some coin on.
For this edition of Brendan’s Best Bets, we are taking a look at Mountain West preseason win totals. Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Boise State Over 8.5 Wins (+134)
This line rose from 7.5 wins to 8.5 wins. Even at 8.5, I still like the over. Taylen Green might be the best QB in the conference despite only being a redshirt sophomore. The Broncos offense returns nine starters and they also have a lethal rushing attack. While the defense only returns five starters, the Broncos should still have one of the top defenses in the Mountain West.
The schedule isn’t easy with road games at Washington, San Diego State, Memphis and Fresno State. However, this is the most talented team in the conference and should be favored in a large majority of their games. I think Boise State will win double digit games this year so the over is a great play, especially at plus odds.
Hawaii Over 3.5 Wins (-118)
Hawaii was a team that significantly got better as the year progressed. The Rainbow Warriors went 3-10 in year one of the Timmy Chang era. They would only need to win one more game to hit this over. With nine returning starters on defense and the second year in a new offense, improving to four wins is a reasonable expectation.
Hawaii faces one of the easiest schedules in America and had four one possession losses last year. Those are signs that Hawaii will improve this season. While bowl eligibility will be tough, getting to four wins is very doable for the Rainbow Warriors.
Nevada Over 4.5 Wins (+104)
Nevada should have a nice bounce back year in Ken Wilson’s second season. The Wolf Pack return 14 starters and avoid Boise State and Air Force in conference play. Wilson did a good job acquiring talent via the transfer portal. This is a much better staff as well as the entire staff is two years into their tenure. Quarterback play should be much better this year as well which will win them more games.
While bowl eligibility might be a stretch, getting to five wins is very doable. Nevada averaged seven to eight wins under Jay Norvell and Wilson will get the program back on track starting this season.
Wyoming Over 5.5 Wins (-168)
This is my favorite play in this conference. The last time Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl won less than six games in a regular season was in 2015, not counting the COVID season. Bohl is very high on this team compared to his past teams. The defense should be among the conference’s best with 10 returning starters.
The Cowboys are a contender in the Mountain West and they have a really good home field advantage. However, Wyoming will play Boise State and Air Force on the road. Even with those games away from Laramie, I still really like Wyoming to get to seven or eight wins. The over should hit with room to spare.
To recap, here are the bets we are making:
Boise State Over 8.5 Wins (+134)
Hawaii Over 3.5 Wins (-118)
Nevada Over 4.5 Wins (+104)
Wyoming Over 5.5 Wins (-168)