A new season of College Football is almost here. With a new season comes an opportunity to have a little extra change in your pocket.
In the coming weeks leading up to kickoff on August 26, I will go from conference to conference sharing my preseason win total bets that are worth putting some coin on.
For this edition of Brendan’s Best Bets, we are taking a look at Big 12 preseason win totals. Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Over 5.5 Wins (+138)
Cincinnati had a rough offseason. The Bearcats lost their head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin and he took a number of his Cincinnati players with him to Madison. Former Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield enters as Cincinnati enters a new era in the Big 12. The cupboard was left bare on offense, but the defense is still very talented. The Bearcats should have one of the best front sevens in the conference.
The schedule is nice as well. Cincinnati avoids Texas, TCU and Kansas State in Big 12 play. They also have winnable non-conference games against Eastern Kentucky and Miami OH. There isn’t a single game on the schedule that is flat out unwinnable. This team won’t match the nine wins they posted last year, but getting to a bowl is very doable. With plus odds, this is a good play in the Big 12.
Oklahoma Under 9.5 Wins (-118)
The Sooners were abysmal on defense in Brent Venables' first year as the Oklahoma head coach. While they should be better on defense overall, how much better will they be? Can that difference propel the Sooners from six regular season wins to ten? I doubt it.
Despite Oklahoma having one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12, they still play Texas, TCU, Kansas, Oklahoma State and BYU. Their Big 12 foes will be gunning for them this year as well because Oklahoma is headed to the SEC next year. I think this team will improve but not enough to reach double digit wins.
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins (-115)
When has Mike Gundy ever won less than seven regular season games? The answer is just twice since 2008. Gundy and Oklahoma State are consistently a good program. The Cowboys struggled down the stretch last season finishing 2-6 last season and suffered some key losses to the transfer portal.
This season, Oklahoma State should have one of the top defenses in the Big 12. That’s not even the side of the ball Gundy is known for. The Cowboys return four of five on the offensive line and should fare well passing the ball. The schedule is one of the easiest in the power five. They play the four newcomers to the conference and the eight worst teams in the conference besides themselves, according to preseason odds. The schedule makes them a contender in the conference.
TCU Over 7.5 Wins (-144)
People seem to be counting out TCU just months removed from the Horned Frogs making the National Championship Game. Sure, they lost quarterback Max Duggan and many other pieces on offense, but when you look at who they return and who they bring in via the transfer portal relative to the win total, this is an easy over for me.
TCU’s toughest games fall later in the season which bodes well for the new starting quarterback Chandler Morris who beat out Duggan in fall camp last season. The Horned Frogs won’t replicate what they did last season. However, getting to eight wins is very doable.
West Virginia Under 5.5 Wins (-188)
Neal Brown is entering year five as the West Virginia head coach and he’s only had one winning season. There is a lot of uncertainty at many positions. The only position group that I am confident in being good is the offensive line. However, this bet is not so much about the team. It’s about the coaching situation.
West Virginia opens their season at Penn State. They also play Pitt, Texas Tech and TCU in the month of September. Brown could be fired if he gets off to a bad start. That could start a downward spiral of a season in a loaded conference from top to bottom. Even if Brown stays the entire season, West Virginia has one of the tougher schedules in the Big 12. This smells like a 4-8 or 5-7 season for the Mountaineers.
To recap, here are the bets we are making:
Cincinnati Over 5.5 Wins (+138)
Oklahoma Under 9.5 Wins (-118)
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 Wins (-155)
TCU Over 7.5 Wins (-144)
West Virginia Under 5.5 Wins (-188)
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