ASU vs. Baylor: Predictions, Breakout Star & Bold Calls
- Jordon Leon
- Aug 15
- 4 min read
Location: McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025 (Mountain Standard Time — exact kickoff TBA)(Official Schedule)
Game Context & Narrative
After an opening month that features Northern Arizona, Mississippi State, and Texas State, Arizona State enters the meat of the season with their first major Big 12 road test against Baylor. This is a matchup dripping with subplots—Baylor is known for disciplined football under head coach Dave Aranda, with a defense that thrives on physicality and an offense capable of stretching the field.
For ASU, this trip to Waco is about more than just a win in the standings. It’s a measuring stick for Kenny Dillingham’s program-building progress. Win this game, and the Sun Devils gain additional edge in the voting as Baylor is tabbed to be a contending Top 25 team. Lose, and the battle for Big XII supremacy becomes a largely uphill battle.
Final Score Prediction
Arizona State 35, Baylor 24
Both teams will land their punches, but ASU’s playmakers on both sides of the ball should have enough late-game execution to escape with a narrow road win.
Breakout Star: Clayton Smith, DL (R-Sr, #10)
Clayton Smith has been on the verge of a headline performance all season, and Week 4 feels like the perfect storm. A rare blend of size, explosiveness, and technical skill, Smith has been a constant presence in opposing backfields—sometimes even when double-teamed. His burst off the line forces offensive linemen to cheat their stance, which in turn creates opportunities for teammates in stunt packages.
Against Baylor, Smith will face an offensive line that has been inconsistent in pass protection early in the year. The Bears have allowed pressure up the middle and on the edge, which plays directly into Smith’s strengths as a speed-to-power rusher. His ability to collapse the pocket could be the deciding factor in disrupting Baylor’s passing rhythm.
Don’t be surprised if Smith’s fingerprints are all over the stat sheet. We’re talking multiple pressures, at least one sack, and possibly a turnover-creating hit. But beyond numbers, it’s the timing of his plays that could change the game—third-down stops, red-zone disruptions, and perhaps even a highlight-worthy defensive score.
In a conference that values explosive offense, Smith is the type of player who can tilt the balance toward the defense in an instant.
Bold Call: ASU Forces Two Defensive Turnovers and Converts Both into Touchdowns
Turnovers are game-changers in any matchup, but in a road environment like Waco, they can be outright momentum killers for the home crowd. The bold call here is that ASU not only forces two turnovers—but turns both into touchdowns.
How could it happen? Picture this: early in the first quarter, Baylor tries to establish the passing game on a deep out route. Smith comes off the edge with a perfectly timed rush, strips the quarterback, and the ball bounces right into the arms of linebacker Zyrus Fiaseu , who rumbles 30 yards to the end zone. The sudden swing silences the crowd and gives ASU an emotional edge.
Later in the game, Baylor, trailing in the fourth quarter, drives into ASU territory. A tipped pass by safety Xavion Alford falls directly into the waiting hands of cornerback Myles Rowser. With blockers in front and a convoy down the sideline, Rowser takes it to the house, sealing the game.
Why this bold call matters: Baylor runs an offense that, while dangerous, also carries turnover risk when pressed into passing situations. If ASU’s defensive front can force Baylor into third-and-long scenarios, the opportunities for these game-shifting plays increase exponentially.
Key Matchups to Watch
Clayton Smith vs. Baylor’s Offensive Tackles – This is the chess match that could decide the game. Smith’s speed rush must be respected, but if Baylor overcommits, it opens up blitz lanes for ASU’s linebackers.
Sam Leavitt (QB, R-So, #10) vs. Baylor Secondary – Leavitt’s accuracy in intermediate throws will determine how effectively ASU moves the chains. Avoiding interceptions is critical on the road.
ASU Offensive Line vs. Baylor Pass Rush – Veterans Max Iheanachor and Ben Coleman must anchor a clean pocket. One or two blown protections could swing the game.
ASU Secondary vs. Baylor’s Receivers – Cornerbacks will need to maintain tight coverage while avoiding costly pass interference penalties.
Stat Line Projections
Player | Projected Stats |
Clayton Smith (DL) | 3 QB pressures, 1 sack, 1 TFL, 1 forced fumble |
Sam Leavitt (QB) | 25/35, 300 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT |
Malik McClain (WR) | 6 catches, 95 yd, 1 TD |
Xavion Alford (S) | 5 tackles, 1 INT |
Team Defense | 2 forced turnovers, 2 defensive TDs, 4+ sacks |
Closing Thoughts
This trip to Waco will be one of ASU’s most telling early-season moments. Road conference games have a way of revealing a team’s true identity—whether it’s discipline under pressure, resilience after adversity, or the ability to execute a game plan in a hostile environment.
If the Sun Devils can come out of McLane Stadium with a win, they’ll do more than improve their record. They’ll prove they can win the kind of games that define a Big 12 contender. The keys will be:
Defensive Disruption: Clayton Smith and the front seven must make Baylor uncomfortable from the opening snap.
Offensive Efficiency: Sam Leavitt can’t afford turnovers, and sustained drives will be crucial for keeping Baylor’s offense off the field.
Capitalizing on Mistakes: If Baylor hands ASU opportunities through turnovers or penalties, the Sun Devils must turn them into points—ideally touchdowns, not field goals.
In the long arc of the season, this is the type of game that players remember and fans circle when discussing turning points. For Kenny Dillingham, it’s a chance to show that ASU is not just here to compete in the Big 12—they’re here to win meaningful games in difficult venues.
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